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The four forces of engineering, policy, business models, and social dynamics work together to make business disturbance, as explained in the comprehensive publication Future Tech: How to Capture Value from Disruptive Industry Trends, by Trond Arne Undheim.
It isn’t merely technology alone, but alignment involving those four forces that influence market success. Mastering the dynamics of the interaction is key for success in the future of knowledge work.
Trond Arne Undheim is a futurist, enterprise partner at Antler and Hitachi Ventures, ecosystem evangelist in Tulip, co-founder of Yegii, also former Director of MIT Startup Exchange. He had been previously National Expert for e-Government in the European Commission, also hosts that the Futurized.co podcast.
The publication provides a broad sweep of macro-level disruptive forces, in addition to micro-level methods to construct insights capacity for capturing value from business trends. The material is well-researched, with a 28-page bibliography along with a 40-page appendix of all influencers, events, and electronic tools.
Success at a fast-changing globe will come out of not only an intellectual grasp of those four forces, but also visualising connections, cross-fertilising between distinct domains, becoming an entrepreneurial tinkerer, and also participating with ecosystem gamers like mentors and startups.
“We are about to find the most acute split of haves and have nots in many hundred years: those who totally embrace, and can maintain, systemic risk and those who do not,” Trond warns.
The powerful function of the environment continues to be increased by the coronavirus pandemic (the environment strikes back), and potentially the greatest crisis of all, “extinction-level climate change”. The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted demand for video-conferencing, also for VR in the long term.
The publication draws on other frameworks like PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) investigation, also expands on others such as SWOT and Porter’s Five Forces (rivalry, bargaining power, substitutes, new entrants, buyer power).
One chapter is devoted to each of those four forces of disturbance: technician, coverage, business models, and social dynamics. Together, they constitute the “social biosphere of invention,” with a mix of systems and ecosystems.
Insights for each force could be drawn from academic, business, and government sources, which include consultancies and occasion communities.
Here are my key clusters of takeaways from the 310-page publication, summarised also from the table beneath. See also my reviews of the related books Innovation Ultimatum, Seeing Digital, Fintech Future, Out-Innovate, The Next Billion Users, along with Machine, Platform, Crowd.
(Image credit: YourStory)
Science and Technology
On the tech front, the system version increases chances of succeeding, as seen at the increase of programs for articles, social media, e mail, and e-learning. Examples comprise Fiverr, Udemy, and Uber.
Classifying technology helps identify patterns, connections, and new spaces for invention. Trond categorises them to emerging tech, infrastructure tech, common tech, mass-market tech, and heritage tech.
Prominent tech business institutions comprise CompTIA and BIO; other regional organisations comprise AAAS and ScienceEurope. Governments talk to such businesses, and come up with policies, regulations, tools, and position statements.
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Government
Tech-savviness and innovation support of governments varies widely across the globe. Trond cites authorities support of GPS, Internet, supercomputers, AI, MRI, and prosthetics as examples.
“Europe is a worldwide trend-setter on technician management,” Trond observes. The EU also offers a best-practice sharing network for e-government. Nations such as China conduct Internet censorship, but other nations have done so also at various times and at varying amounts.
Standards-setting, commerce, cybersecurity, and large technician (FAANG) regulation are places to carefully track. Some criteria are voluntary and industry-driven (e.g., GSMA, IETF, W3C, OASIS), others have been mandated by authorities.
Government support for innovation stems from bodies like Swissnex and Innovation Canada. Trond cites valuable reports like OECD Review of Innovation Policy, Bloomberg Innovation Index, also WIPO’s Global Innovation Index.
Government consultation processes should be open, participatory, effective, and more coherent. Challenges for authorities include tech complexity, rate of change, and influx of new business models, Trond cautions.
Business compels
Trond charts the rise of industries over the centuries, e.g., manufacturing and telecom (19th century), aerospace and software (20th century), and even more recent industries in recent years like virtual industries, cannabis and 3D printing.
Tech forces like digitalisation have become the backbone for all industries. 3D printing may change production in addition to consumption, and mobility-as-a-service and autonomous vehicles will reshape transport.
“The way industries morph into each other, interact and change, and evolve isn’t easy to see instantly,” Trond cautions.
Startups are inspiring examples of tech innovators, and contend with incumbents who suffer with complacency, inertia and group-think. Clusters of startups have been upending whole markets or segments, he observes; this compels incumbents to acquire them.
“Disruptive innovation happens through devising something new that clients might not have the creativity to comprehend when posed with an early prototype,” he adds, pointing into Steve Jobs’ inventions at Apple for instance. Even approaches for example lean startup and layout thinking can find with “false negatives”.
Systematic methods to business design design have emerged, such as bundling, subscription, open source, and crowdsourcing. “There was a creative element to business models that’s frequently overlooked,” Trond cautions. Entrepreneurs occasionally take decisions based on intuition or hunches.
“Disruptive technology have a tendency to produce their own business models, businesses, and entirely new value chains,” Trond explains. Research and evaluation are not enough to succeed, comprehensive involvement is called for.
“Full comprehension requires participating in the solution to find out what it actually involves, not talking about it. The simple fact that many corporations are flocking to startup partnerships is evidence of the tendency,” he adds.
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Social dynamics
Trond identifies four sub-forces of social dynamics. Social groups comprise startup founders and developers. Political, environmental and health communities are cases of moves.
Generations (Gen X, Gen Alpha) and cultures (national, sectoral) are other elements of social dynamics, however, care should be taken to stay away from stereotypes that are restrictive. Each cluster varies in viewpoints, habits and buying power.
As examples, Trond reveals how the Segway had exceptional technology and patents, but neglected with respect to business design, shape variable, along with unresolved relationship with all regulators. Google Glass neglected from the consumer sector, but pivoted into the enterprise marketplace.
Innovations from revolutionary innovators “defy common knowledge, focus groups, along with professional advice”. They seldom succeed, but when they do, it’s in “unexpected, society-altering ways,” Trond observes.
Five technology that issue
According to disruptive power and capacity to interact with one another, Trond identifies five important technology to watch: AI, robotics, 3D printing, synthetic biology, and blockchain. They are also being accelerated in the pandemic era.
Trond analysed the rise and effect of each one of those technologies from the four forces recognized earlier. For example, AI-enhanced understanding and autonomous driving may constitute, but workforce regulations and ethical frameworks will impact development of AI.
Robots are finding social acceptance in work states where they consider jobs that have risk, difficulty, and drudgery, or in controlled environments such as surgery. From the consumer realm, robots will be used for more disinfection and cleaning as a result of pandemic effect.
3D printing spurs rapid design, co-creation, on-demand manufacturing, and less reliance on global supply chains. However, the social dynamics are still largely unknown, Trond cautions.
Within the field of synthetic biology, some nations have a moratorium on GMO. But useful applications incorporate new synthetic materials across businesses, bio-design, and bio-computing. Trond cites synthetic rubber, bio-acrylic, bio-plastics, and bio-fuels as examples; future tendencies include 3D printing of live cells, including gene repair, and wearable robotics.
Social dynamics such as lack of consciousness about the complexity of both blockchain is a struggle, Trond observes. But uses instances such as the UK property registry along with Dubai’s electronic city are still emerging.
In each area, the author identifies a variety of promising startups and gamers, including Desktop Metal, Formlabs, Markforged, MX3D, Neuralink, iRobot, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Stratasys, and Bitwage.
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The micro-view: polymaths, insight ecosystems
Two chapters from the book offer an interesting glimpse into the world of polymaths, and what habits we could ourselves imbibe.
Earlier, polymaths comprise Aristotle, Ibn Khaldun, Leonardo da Vinci, Marie Curie, and Nikola Tesla. More recent polymaths have been Steve Jobs and Elon Musk.
Some of their exceptional characteristics include passion for knowledge, understanding first principles, integration across areas, systematic note-taking, and adopting the newcomer ’so mindset.
It is important to be an expert in at least two domains, and sprinkled in some others (Pi-shaped expertise). Trond contrasts between inter-disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, multi-disciplinary, along with trans-disciplinary capabilities.
Every one of us must build up our own “private growth toolkit” to get varied information, enhance absorptive capacity, willful on conclusions, and scale our capabilities. Plan frameworks or mental models should be combined with a point of view, an empirical mindset, and skills in pattern recognition.
“When learning is placed together with contextual chance, we produce insight,” Trond describes. These can be used to plot timelines to get a year for a decade beforehand. Stamina, self-confidence, micro-learning, experiential learning, lateral thinking, assertive saying, and openness to learn from failure are called for.
Length of vulnerability to a field or activity are not enough — it’s important to commit to active understanding, possess pragmatic objectives, and desire to create an effect. Skills like drawing mental channels and sketching for business value chains also help.
Trond supplies a wealth of tools for those who want to monitor and exploit emerging technology trends, including publications, biographies, podcasts, search reports, newsletters, communities, events, along with electronic tools. The “insight system ” ought to also have mentors, influencers, coworkers, and friends.
Activities like scenario planning and engaging in receptive innovation partnerships with accelerators are also recommended. Following macro-trends is most common, but one should observe micro-trends also.
“Experts have a tendency to forget to check at the most obvious places, and forget to use their common sense,” Trond cautions. Therefore, it’s necessary to cultivate numerous viewpoints and empathy.
The author urges readers to set a clear goal of becoming “10 times longer enlightening ” at annually. He amuses Oliver Wendell Holmes: “A moment’s insight is sometimes worth a life’s experience. ”
As useful examples, Trond lists reports by CB Insights, Forbes lists of innovators, MacArthur Fellows, The Midas List, in addition to dozens of Twitter accounts of business influencers.
Huge events could be energising for a few attendees, while others prefer small forums with romantic networking. Publishing one’s views on social websites helps being “at the know and in the flow. ”
The road ahead: human improvement
The book ends with examples of how technology is assisting individuals make a cognitive leap. They range from brain-machine interfaces to infantry limbs.
The kinds of emerging functions in future include developing new machines, tweaking them, or incorporating together. We can place boundaries for their intervention in our own lives, or develop new ethics for human-machine interaction, so the author describes.
“If we keep learning, our scientific potential could be smart, both as individuals and as a collective, and it can serve the greater purpose of constructing a future — a location where we can thrive,” Trond affirms.
In sum, this is a must-read publication for startups, company innovators, academics, and policymakers. The focus on alignment of forces outside just technology along with the practical tips on enhancing a single ’s own insights abilities are particularly beneficial in an era of fast and worldwide change.
YourStory has also printed the pocketbook ‘Proverbs and Quotes for Entrepreneurs: A World of Inspiration for Startups’ as an innovative and motivational guide for innovators (downloadable as programs here: Apple, Android).
Edited by Megha Reddy
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